After Game 2 of the 2023 Finals on Sunday night, a slight controversy erupted over Nikola Jokic’s strengths as a passer versus a scorer. Which at least was a welcome change of pace considering that the Denver Nuggets’ and their supporters’ main worry in recent seasons has been Jokic’s effect as a sitter. Jokic’s on/off statistics have, in fact, increased throughout the course of the previous three regular seasons. The Nuggets improved by 8.9 points per 100 possessions when he was in the game in his first MVP campaign in 2020–21, scoring more and allowing fewer points.
Jokic’s statistical presence/absence ratio roughly doubled a year later. They outscored opponents by 8.4 points per 100 possessions when he played, while giving 7.9 fewer points per 100 with him in the game. Add those up and Jokic on the floor was worth 16.3 points in net rating.
The clear message to the opposing teams was to score heavily if the Serbian center left the game if you couldn’t win the minutes he was on the court. At around 33 minutes per game on average, that left 15 most nights to make up any shortfalls.
Curiously, the Nuggets’ with-or-without Joker numbers skyrocketed as they developed into a Finals contender this season and received greater health from players like Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. They were by a factor of two better at scoring and by a factor of two poorer at defending. His plus-22.9 rating represented the largest difference in the NBA over the course of the 82 regular-season games.
Jokic’s on/off impact through 17 playoff games is a more acceptable plus-9.4. When their best player received his customary rest at the start of the second and fourth quarters, the Nuggets were consistent and had fewer hiccups.
Malone remarked, “When Nikola has been out, the other players have stepped up and played well. We currently have a bench group of three players: Bruce Brown, Jeff Green, and Christian Braun. Those guys are performing nicely, in my opinion. We always have two of our top three scorers on the field even if Nikola isn’t playing because Jamal and Michael, or both of them, are available.
Jokic said “I believe that someone has always been hurt in the past. We didn’t always have the same group of players off the bench. The players are doing a pretty fantastic job of playing, being aggressive, and attacking when they see the seams now that we kind of know the rotation.
During the regular season, Denver sagged at both ends without Jokic. In the postseason, the difference has shown on offense – in fact, the other guys have been only minus-0.3 points per 100. Then they play a bit faster than when Jokic is involved.
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